Author's NCAA Basketball 2023-24

[authorbytrade]

Hopefully, I will be able to find the time to do a full season of my favorite wagering sport. I believe this is the sport I can contribute the most to the board with.

Posting some futures to begin with, starting with some wagers to win March Madness. I rarely do futures, as I abhor the hold equity, but in 2 of the last 3 sports/seasons where I have made futures bets I've found the champion with one of my tickets.

Wagers to win the title:

Michigan St. +1600
Marquette +2000
Arkansas +2500
Ole Miss +15000

Obviously, coaching is an important factor to me in making these wagers. I worry about Arkansas in that regard but the talent they'll put on the court is very strong. The other 3 teams all sport Top 20 coaching talent. Ole Miss winning it all might be unrealistic but I think they will make the tournament and NO ONE will want to face a Beard coached team in the first round. My projections show Michigan St. as a #2 seed, Marquette as a #3 seed, Arkansas as a #4 seed, and Ole Miss as a #11 seed (last 4 in and the 9th SEC team to make the field).

 

[skoda]

Good luck. You know who I will be watching and getting to the Big Dance is what it's all about. Marking Feb 13th on my Calendar...

 

[authorbytrade]

Rarely bet the first day of NCAA's....it's a thing for me. Smaller card for today. I will play more sides in the NCAA than I do in the NBA but still focused on totals. I have a very good history playing NCAA totals and unless the line movements start pestering me, I'll try to post everything here.

For 11-7-23

#618 IPFW/Depaul over 143.5
Opening number for this game was more correct and I would have considered playing over that number but it just missed. The two point line movement down makes it playable though. I can understand the line movement downward as most are considering that both of these teams lost most of their scoring and only return a fraction of their minutes played from LY. However, those missing players weren't very good and I think their replacements can achieve better results. IPFW will play with some pace and they don't defend well. Depaul will put some athletes on the floor and should be able to achieve offensive success on volume alone. Depaul has over tendencies when favored by more than 7 at home vs non-conference foes and that's been with teams very similar to this one. Pace makes the game and the pace should be there, even if I expect some poor shooting. I made the expected pace related true total (EPTT) 149.2.

 

[authorbytrade]

Adding a rogue line wager, this is still around one spot.

#615 Auburn +1.5

 

[authorbytrade]

Someone not covering their footprints as well early on. Dip off the opener was a headfake, this game is going to close above the opener. Adding another unit before it elevates out of control.

#618 IPFW/Depaul over 144.5

 

[authorbytrade]

Nice start. Not disappointed in any of the wagers. Depaul played a bit slower than anticipated but it was hard to tell as the game featured a lot of fouls and 20+ FT attempts from both teams, making the game choppy. Got a min-foul fest at the end but the game was already over the total while competitive and in the course of natural game flow.

Totals = 2-0 100% +2 units
Sides = 0-1 0.0% -1.1 units

 

[authorbytrade]

For 11-8-23:

#634 Loyola-Chicago +7
Some interference in this line and FAU is def getting a boost from their run in the NCAA tourney last year. Both of these teams return all 5 starters and FAU has their top 11 players back. Both of these teams want to defend and look for quality shots, they'll just get them in different ways. FAU will want athletic cuts and dribble drives while Loyola-Chicago will run more set plays and look to get the ball inside. Loyola is well coached and their team is VERY experienced. They will have 5 player who averaged double-digits at the Division I level LY and I like the Ivy League transfers they brought in. No way that FAU can live up to the hype on them from LY and that should get Loyola, who has a great fan base, amped up for this home game. Loyola plays in a way that lends itself to closely contested games and I like the extra value I'm getting here from the combination of the built in prejudice in the opener and the corresponding line movement.

#306540 Southern/UNLV over 148.5
Got this at 146.5 myself and this is the cap on the number I'd be willing to play it at. Southern's top 5 scorers from LY are all gone and they looked ragged on offense in their opener vs TCU. Southern was a poor defensive team LY and it looks like the coaching change has not remedied that as they gave up 100+ in their opener. UNLV relies on defense but I think early on they will want to push the pace a bit and see what they have offensively. The Rebels new 5 Star PG has earned rave reviews and they have enough scoring and shooting to be better offensively than they were LY. UNLV likes transition baskets and I think Southern will provide them with plenty. This is another total I think we can get even with some poor shooting. My EPTT is 149 but I like the developmental situation for the home team and think that Southern is just going to be bad defensively (again). This only doesn't get there if Southern just can't score and is held below 60, I think the pace won't allow for that.

 

[indiana]

author..........BOL with your plays buddy....indy

 

[authorbytrade]

Totals = 3-0 100%. +3 units
Sides = 0-2 0.0% -2.2 units

For 11-9-23:

#646 ETSU/Elon over 145
#660 Stephen F. Austin/MTSU over 143.5
#672 New Mexico/St. Mary's over 142
#306562 Chicago St. +4.5

 

[authorbytrade]

Some thoughts, these will get minimized on days when there are like a million college games.

#646 this came very close to being a 2X wager. ETSU has 8 new players but they did bring a solid JC PG with a ton of experience. They like to play fast and PG is very important to them. Elon brings back balanced scoring options and I have their tempo rating significantly higher than where most do. They gave up 100+ in their first game of the year and I believe this reflects their underestimated pace rankings. My EPTT is 149 for this game and the move up off the opener is correct.

#660 Last game to make the wager sheet. SFA wants to play up-tempo and they bring back 4 starters, which is a rarity these days. Their team is deep and actually has some talent and I think they'll push MTSU in this game. MTSU wants to play more gritty and defend but with no true go to scorer they need to score in transition and create TO's. My EPTT was 146.5 and I was willing to take the value. I expect an overage performance from SFA to push this game over the total.

#672 Early in the season, quality G play is supremely important. We're going to get some great G play in this game. Both sides have 2 dynamite scoring G's on the roster and it's going to be tough to contain them. St. Mary's will try to do it with pace and New Mexico will try to do it by attacking them defensively. I don't think either approach will work. We might see 4 different players reach 17+ ppg scoring in this one. Should get a competitive game and in an end game scenario you will have the opportunity for strong FT shooting followed by high quality offensive players taking quick looks. Might not need it but if you do it's a good extra benefit. My EPTT for this game was 145.

#306562 This one is simple. I think Chicago St. is much improved and will have better depth than they've had in recent times. Mercer has no bench, an overall weak starting 5, and will be overly reliant on one scoring option. Chicago St. doesn't get enough home games and getting one here to begin the season should be a motivator for them and I think their roster talent is a bit unknown. I'm willing to take the points at home to find out. The line movement here is puzzling to me and I was glad to get the extra bucket of value....I made the game PICK.

I only had one other game where my EPTT reflected a play but other factors prevented me from making a wager on it. I made the Omaha/TCU game 156.2

 

[bristolnole]

Thanks so much for the explanations......Extremely helpful, and best of luck to us!

 

[authorbytrade]

Totals = 4-2 66.7%. +1.8units
Sides = 0-3 0.0% -3.3 units

Some totals for today, will add them as I bet them:

#712 SHSU/Oklahoma St. under 137

 

[authorbytrade]

Totals = 4-3 57.1%. +.7 units
Sides = 0-3 0.0% -3.3 units

College hoops used to be my bread and butter, haven't played a full season in while though. Mediocre start but it's a long season.

For 11-13-23:

#862 Michigan/St. John's under 155.5 I'm surprised by the rise here, this just doesn't feel like and up & down tempo game. Both teams can defend.
#306572 Sienna/American over 135.5
#306574 Hampton/Norfolk St. over 147.5
#866 Stony Brook/Duquesne over 145.5
#306580 Arkansas Pine-Bluff/Central Arkansas over 153.5

#862 St. John's -2 (120)
#889 Xavier +17.5
#891 UCSB +3.5

 

[indiana]

author....BOL with all your action tonight buddy....
good looking sides........indy

 

[authorbytrade]

Totals = 7-5 58.3%. +1.5 units
Sides = 1-5 0.0%. -4.6 units

Went 3-2 on the totals but 4 of the 5 games were basically coin flips. One solid winner with the Ark-PB/Central Ark game but the other 4 could have all gone either way. Not much of an advantage from my capping.

 

[authorbytrade]

Might be back with more:

11-14-23:

#614 Duke/Michigan St. over 141.5
#306515 Bellarmine/Chattanooga over 143.5
#306521 Brown/New Hampshire over 143.5
#306528 UMass-Lowell/Georgia Tech over 148.5
#647 UT-Rio Grande Valley/TCU over 162.5

#643 Marquette +2
#306519 Lipscomb +1.5
#306513 Colgate +6.5

 

[authorbytrade]

Totals = 8-9 47.1%. -1.9 units
Sides = 4-5 44.4%. -1.6 units

The totals will get better but sometimes at night I curse Mr. Pomeroy.

For 11-15-23

#306566 Delaware/Delaware St. over 142.5
#682 Princeton/Duquesne over 144.5
#684 C. Michigan/USF over 146
#708 Pacific/Nevada over 151
#306575 Morgan St./Fresno St. over 140.5

#685 Richmond +4.5
#691 Cornell +2.5
#698 Illinois St. -12.5
#701 Rice +21

 

[authorbytrade]

Totals = 10-12. 45.5%. -3.0 units
Sides = 5-8 38.5%. -3.9 units

Overnight for 11-16-23:

#749 Oklahoma St./St. Bonaventure over 135.5

 

[authorbytrade]

Hopefully today will be a good day of watching some hoops and making good wagers.

#736 St. Louis/Wyoming over 151

 

[authorbytrade]

#743 Dayton PK